Northern Virginia Home Appreciation; A Picture Says A Thousand Words

Home prices bottomed in the 2011-12 range coming out of the housing decline and Great Recession.  Many home buyers don’t realize that prices have fully recovered in most Northern Virginia areas and have actually elevated beyond the former 2006 price highs. 

Home Price Index

Home Prices in Northern Virginia Continue Their Historical Rise
Are you considering buying a home in Northern Virginia, or an investment property?  If so, this is one graph and trendline you’ll want to know well.  I’m often asked where home prices will be in the next few years?  I respond, “The next few years is the short-term and the short-term is where speculation occurs.  Real estate is an investment and investments are measured in medium to long-term time horizons.  Consider any medium to long-term period in history and you’ll see real estate prices have gone up.  Prices will continue to go up in the future when measured against these time horizons.”

In the last 30 years (1987 to 2017) shown in the chart above, home prices have appreciated 3.75% per year.  Moreover, this 3.75% factors in and includes the 23% decline that occurred during the Great Recession (shown in the red box).  Most people don’t realize home prices in Northern Virginia have fully recovered from the Great Recession decline and prices are breaking-out to new highs above the former 2006 highs.

Key Takeaway – If past experience is a gauge of future results, then home prices in Northern Virginia will continue to go up for the next 30 years and beyond.  In fact, the recent break-out to new highs could be a very important and positive inflection point for home prices when we look back 10 to 20 years from now.  Generally, the lowest risk area to purchase any asset (real estate, stock, commodity, etc.) is after the break-out from a consolidation area while prices are still in an uptrend. This is exactly what the graph shows.

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